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Evidence-based biotech investing

Strategy guides and research summaries on the signals that predict biotech stock returns — fund convergence, insider buying, catalyst timing, and more.

Academic Research4 min·

Q4 2025 13F Filings: Where Biotech Hedge Funds Are Investing

Analysis of Q4 2025 13F filings: 116 new positions, 195 increased, 0 exits across 20 specialist biotech hedge funds.

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Strategy3 min·

Biotech Insider Buying: April 2026 Roundup

20 insider purchases across 10 biotech companies in April 2026. See which executives are buying their own stock.

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Academic Research7 min read·

Biotech Penny Stocks with Insider Buying: What the Data Shows

Academic research shows insider purchases in small-cap biotech predict returns — but not all insider buys are equal. Here's how to separate signal from noise in sub-$5 biotech stocks.

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Strategy9 min read·

How to Spot a Biotech Acquisition Target: The M&A Signal Checklist

Big pharma faces a $200B patent cliff. Here are the signals — fund convergence, activist stakes, cash runway, and catalyst timing — that historically precede biotech acquisitions.

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Academic Research10 min read·

Clinical Trial Data for Investors: How to Read Phase 2 and Phase 3 Results

P-values, hazard ratios, confidence intervals — clinical trial readouts are the most important events in biotech investing. Here's how to read them without a PhD.

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Academic Research9 min read·

How to Read 13F Filings: A Biotech Investor's Complete Guide

13F filings reveal what the biggest hedge funds are buying and selling. Here's exactly how to find, read, and interpret them — with a focus on biotech-specific signals that matter.

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Academic Research8 min read·

PDUFA Dates Explained: What Every Biotech Investor Needs to Know

PDUFA dates are the single most important catalyst in biotech investing. Here's what they are, how to find them, what drives FDA timing, and how smart money positions around them.

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Strategy8 min read·

Biotech Short Squeeze Indicators: How to Find and Evaluate Squeeze Candidates

Short squeezes in biotech can generate 100%+ returns in days. Here's the data-driven framework for identifying squeeze setups — days to cover, catalyst proximity, and fund positioning.

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Strategy7 min read·

13D Filings and Activist Investing in Biotech: When Hedge Funds Force Change

When a hedge fund crosses 5% ownership and files a 13D, it signals intent to influence the company. In biotech, activist stakes can accelerate M&A, restructure pipelines, and unlock value.

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Academic Research6 min read·

Verdad's Biotech White Paper, Part 1: Why Specialist Fund Holdings Predict Returns

Verdad Capital's 2026 white paper finds that stocks most heavily owned by specialist biotech funds returned 20% annualized vs. -2% for those least owned. We break down the expert signals.

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Academic Research6 min read·

Verdad's Biotech White Paper, Part 2: Why Traditional Quant Factors Fail — and What Works Instead

Part 2 of our breakdown of Verdad's 2026 white paper. Traditional value and momentum are inverted in biotech. Verdad rebuilt them using 130,000 clinical trials — and found a 38-point return spread.

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Academic Research7 min read·

Short Interest, Days to Cover, and Why Short Sellers Are the Third Expert Signal in Biotech

Academic research shows short interest predicts negative returns — especially in biotech. Days to cover is the key metric. Here's how to read it and why BiotechEdge now tracks it.

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Academic Research8 min read·

What Academic Research Says About Form 4 Insider Trading in Biotech Small Caps

Decades of research show insider purchases predict abnormal returns — especially in small-cap biotech where information asymmetry is highest. Here's what the data says and how to use it.

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Strategy5 min read·

Fund Convergence: The Highest-Conviction Signal in Biotech Investing

When 3+ specialist biotech hedge funds independently build positions in the same company, pay attention. Here's why convergence is the strongest public signal we've found.

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Strategy6 min read·

Cash Runway and Catalyst Timing: Why Both Matter for Biotech Investors

A company with a PDUFA in 6 months but only 4 months of cash is a different bet than one funded through approval. Here's how to combine runway and catalyst data.

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